Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x101c…a221 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$469 (-24%) realized −$362 · open −$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$686
other 31% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -27.7% -34.6% 38% 38% -36.9%
≤30d 8 -27.7% -34.6% 38% 38% -36.9%
≤90d 8 -27.7% -34.6% 38% 38% -36.9%
all 8 -27.7% -34.6% 38% 38% -36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 38% -36.9%
10% -40.8% 38% -42.9%
15% -46.6% 38% -48.5%
20% -51.8% 38% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$180 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$362
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 57¢ 50¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) New Zealand 35¢ 24¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 19¢ 8¢ $100 $39 −$61 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $301 +$194 +64%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $203 −$203 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $199 −$199 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $248 −$248 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $195 +$140 +72%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $102 +$69 +68%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $204 −$53 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $101 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 35¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 19¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $495 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $301 6h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $204 6h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 94¢ $334 7h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 76¢ $171 7h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $93 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 8h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 56¢ $203 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $97 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 38¢ $102 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $44 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $204 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 30¢ $151 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 39¢ $204 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.46 · official $193.46 (match) · 21 history records