Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:05:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x101d…cad2 sports 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (359 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,912 (-18%) realized −$3,000 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%36W / 120L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day359.2pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$2,449
crypto 24% −$109
other 14% −$485
world 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (359 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -42.9% -48.4% 23% 8% -27.0%
≤30d 156 -42.9% -48.4% 23% 8% -27.0%
≤90d 156 -42.9% -48.4% 23% 8% -27.0%
all 156 -42.9% -48.4% 23% 8% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover359.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.4% 8% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -53.3% 5% -33.9%
15% -57.8% 4% -40.3%
20% -62.0% 2% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -60% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$29 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$3,000
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses36 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions5
Markets (closed)156 / 161
History coverage6d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day359.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $103 $123 +$20 (+19%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 64¢ 74¢ $86 $99 +$13 (+16%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $61 $94 +$33 (+55%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 0¢ 58¢ $0 $35 +$35 (+0%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 26¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Up 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 -58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $75 −$25 -33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $81 +$3 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $351 −$23 -6%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $88 −$18 -20%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $92 −$78 -85%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $63 −$5 -7%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $47 +$2 +4%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $16 $0 -2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $67 −$12 -18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $44 −$12 -28%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $280 −$47 -17%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 +$6 +15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $80 −$7 -8%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$2 -13%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $11 −$4 -35%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $94 −$29 -30%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -91%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$3 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ismaël Koné: 1+ assists Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $14 +$54 +375%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $572 +$15 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -66%
Tarik Muharemović: 1+ goals + assists Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Benjamin Tahirović: 1+ goals + assists Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Owen Goodman: 4+ saves Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -86%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $72 −$2 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $618 −$7 -1%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $197 +$43 +22%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $308 −$63 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $199 −$1 -0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $288 −$46 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 0m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3 0m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $7 0m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 0m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 58¢ $8 0m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 0m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $7 0m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $7 0m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 0m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 0m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 0m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $9 0m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $8 0m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 62¢ $8 0m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 61¢ $8 0m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $8 0m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 0m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 0m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 0m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 0m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 0m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 0m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 0m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 0m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 0m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 66¢ $9 0m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 67¢ $9 0m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 68¢ $9 0m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 0m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 0m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.63 · official $359.00 · 2267 history records