Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x101f…f79a crypto 701 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,311 (-1%) realized −$1,311 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%359W / 342L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$638
14 days−$644
30 days−$658
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$196
other 2% −$231
economics 2% −$2,335
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 453 -16.8% -24.7% 46% 46% -13.3%
≤30d 457 -17.5% -25.4% 46% 46% -13.4%
≤90d 701 -11.2% -19.6% 51% 49% -11.5%
all 701 -11.2% -19.6% 51% 49% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 49% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 43% -20.0%
15% -34.3% 37% -27.7%
20% -40.8% 31% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$148 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses359 / 342
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)701 / 701
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$180
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 701 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $129 +$42 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $172 +$56 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $126 −$123 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $163 +$65 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $121 −$118 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $80 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $130 +$41 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $84 −$82 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$15 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $43 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$27 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $84 +$30 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $130 +$41 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $81 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$33 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $83 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $83 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$14 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$33 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $84 +$30 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $64 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $65 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $172 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $126 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $163 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $121 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $80 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $130 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $84 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $41 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $84 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $130 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $81 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $83 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $41 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records