Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1022…728f crypto 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$874 (-8%) realized −$864 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate70%126W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$149
14 days−$149
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$768
other 2% −$56
sports 1% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -13.3% -21.6% 25% 25% -57.7%
≤30d 4 -13.3% -21.6% 25% 25% -57.7%
≤90d 179 -8.0% -16.7% 70% 46% -17.5%
all 179 -8.0% -16.7% 70% 46% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 46% -17.5%
10% -24.7% 13% -25.4%
15% -32.0% 5% -32.6%
20% -38.6% 3% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$44 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$864
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses126 / 53
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage84d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $90 $80 −$10 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 +$54 +152%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 10 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 07 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 07 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 07 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 07 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 07 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 07 $22 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 07 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 07 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 07 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 07 $23 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 07 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 07 $24 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 07 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 07 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 07 $34 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 07 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 07 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 07 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 07 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 07 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 07 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 07 $16 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 07 $14 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 07 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 07 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 07 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 07 $41 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 07 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 07 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 07 $43 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 07 $45 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 07 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 07 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 07 $14 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 07 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 07 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 07 $17 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 07 $35 +$8 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $92 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $36 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $38 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $43 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $14 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $12 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $17 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.62 · official $79.62 (match) · 1399 history records