Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
10 0x1024…9651 sports 1036 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,852 (+26%) realized +$2,353 · open +$2,499
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%551W / 481L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5,629now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$423
14 days+$312
30 days+$1,777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$675
finance 37% +$3,826
crypto 8% +$1,506
other 3% −$107
world 1% −$99
politics 1% +$37
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 55% +23.2%
≤30d 131 -0.1% -9.6% 56% 56% +21.7%
≤90d 619 -5.4% -14.4% 52% 52% +9.3%
all 1032 -4.9% -14.0% 53% 53% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 53% +2.6%
10% -22.2% 51% -7.2%
15% -29.7% 49% -16.1%
20% -36.6% 41% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$5,629
Realized+$2,353
Unrealized+$2,499
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses551 / 481
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1032 / 1036
History coverage138d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1032 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 57¢ 98¢ $1,084 $1,876 +$792 (+73%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $822 $1,554 +$731 (+89%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 29¢ 88¢ $371 $1,148 +$776 (+209%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $852 $1,052 +$200 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 430 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $6 +$5 +83%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $9 +$7 +76%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $11 +$10 +86%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $4 +$3 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 +$8 +80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $800 +$434 +54%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $9 +$5 +51%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $6 +$7 +119%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $5 +$4 +76%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$6 +119%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $10 +$8 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 +$9 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 10 $6 +$4 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 +$11 +109%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 +$7 +73%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $10 +$6 +61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $5 +$5 +97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $10 +$8 +76%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $9 −$9 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 42m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 53m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 54m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 58m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 59m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $43 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $27 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 99¢ $149 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $48 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,629.29 · official $5,629.29 (match) · 2634 history records