Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1025…7e11 sports 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,043 (-3%) realized −$2,932 · open +$889
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%88W / 122L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Fees−$1,031est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5,337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,163
7 days−$633
14 days−$4,742
30 days−$5,474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,944
other 7% +$211
crypto 6% −$753
world 1% −$361
finance 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 44% -11.6%
≤30d 183 -18.7% -26.5% 41% 40% -18.5%
≤90d 210 -17.1% -25.0% 42% 41% -14.8%
all 210 -17.1% -25.0% 42% 41% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 41% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 39% -23.0%
15% -38.7% 38% -30.4%
20% -44.7% 35% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$248 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$5,337
Realized−$2,932
Unrealized+$889
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses88 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,031
Open positions25
Markets (closed)210 / 235
History coverage53d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 56¢ 80¢ $558 $795 +$237 (+42%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $451 $554 +$103 (+23%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $368 $393 +$25 (+7%)
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 44¢ $173 $354 +$181 (+105%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 57¢ 57¢ $343 $348 +$5 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $320 $332 +$12 (+4%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 48¢ $134 $310 +$176 (+131%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 58¢ $315 $292 −$22 (-7%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $98 $275 +$176 (+179%)
Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $197 $218 +$20 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ 50¢ $205 $198 −$7 (-3%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Under 50¢ 64¢ $150 $190 +$40 (+27%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 91¢ $136 $182 +$46 (+34%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $21 $177 +$156 (+758%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 22¢ $136 $153 +$17 (+12%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 59¢ 60¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $104 $117 +$13 (+12%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $13 $78 +$65 (+517%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $66 $61 −$5 (-7%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 10¢ $182 $48 −$134 (-74%)
Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+22%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+131%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Sean O'Malley next? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+290%)
Will Petr Yan fight Umar Nurmagomedov next? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $13 $6 −$8 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $373 +$397 +106%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $467 −$265 -57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,173 +$874 +74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $597 −$228 -38%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $341 +$271 +80%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $275 +$225 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $75 +$238 +318%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $141 −$138 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $943 −$943 -100%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 15 $297 −$297 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $580 +$739 +128%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $430 +$407 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,408 +$2,392 +99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $137 −$136 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $720 −$712 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $851 −$850 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $554 −$546 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $282 +$218 +77%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $286 +$212 +74%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $91 +$59 +65%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $494 +$506 +102%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $157 −$154 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $508 −$507 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $114 −$112 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $303 +$126 +42%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $209 −$98 -47%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $135 −$132 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $72 +$68 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $158 +$142 +90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $90 +$69 +77%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $549 −$545 -99%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $150 +$18 +12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $165 +$135 +82%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $203 +$97 +48%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $253 +$217 +86%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $243 +$257 +106%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $507 −$503 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $263 +$337 +128%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $340 +$160 +47%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $214 +$156 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $114 −$112 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $163 −$159 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $148 −$145 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $560 +$390 +70%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $212 +$188 +89%
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $124 −$122 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $3 6m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 38m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 39m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 40m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $29 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $6 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $1 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $10 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $26 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $5 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $5 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $10 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $10 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $16 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $60 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $25 54m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $202 55m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $41 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $47 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $7 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $22 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $239 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $153 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $104 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $156 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,336.57 · official $5,339.52 (match) · 2042 history records