Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1025…7939 world 82 markets active 4h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$39 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%38W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$79
14 days−$128
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$65
world 27% −$131
sports 21% +$37
crypto 11% +$31
politics 9% −$25
finance 3% −$5
economics 1% −$3
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -19.9% -27.6% 33% 22% -24.1%
≤30d 36 -18.8% -26.6% 33% 22% -19.7%
≤90d 70 -6.5% -15.4% 51% 33% -10.4%
all 73 -6.7% -15.6% 52% 33% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 33% -10.4%
10% -23.7% 25% -19.0%
15% -31.0% 19% -26.8%
20% -37.8% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses38 / 35
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions9
Markets (closed)73 / 82
History coverage178d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 86¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+13%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 41¢ 36¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 70¢ $21 $20 −$2 (-8%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 41¢ 30¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 37¢ 42¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 55¢ 43¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-22%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 18¢ 12¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-35%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $69 +$7 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $58 −$25 -43%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $23 +$3 +13%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 16 $40 −$6 -15%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 15 $25 −$13 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$3 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$23 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $36 −$31 -88%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $38 +$27 +71%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $21 +$12 +55%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $33 −$16 -48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 13 $24 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $44 −$5 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 11 $66 +$3 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $56 −$16 -29%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 05 $25 −$8 -32%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 03 $15 +$3 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $14 +$3 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $25 +$27 +108%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $41 +$15 +36%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 +6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 28 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 25 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $32 −$10 -30%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $5 $0 -3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $25 $0 +2%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $17 +$8 +47%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $15 +$6 +39%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 10 $34 +$30 +88%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 07 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $5 $0 +4%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 06 $9 $0 +5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $41 −$26 -65%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $62 −$20 -33%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 26 $22 +$5 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 1¢ $5 4h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 11h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $4 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $14 11h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 61¢ $22 11h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 15h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $15 19h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 38¢ $3 20h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 85¢ $26 20h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $13 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $13 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 2d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 2d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $9 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $15 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $12 3d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? SELL No 19¢ $12 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $2 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.00 · official $131.54 (match) · 548 history records