Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
10 0x1025…4c67 crypto 1796 markets active 4d ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,444 (+25%) realized +$1,444 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%886W / 636L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day80.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days+$52
14 days+$312
30 days+$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$536
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 +29.2% +16.9% 62% 62% +10.8%
≤30d 1260 +20.2% +8.8% 61% 60% +4.4%
≤90d 1522 +16.1% +5.0% 58% 57% -0.0%
all 1522 +16.1% +5.0% 58% 57% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.0% 57% -0.0%
10% ← realistic here -5.0% 54% -9.6%
15% -14.2% 47% -18.3%
20% -22.6% 40% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses886 / 636
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1522 / 1796
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day80.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1522 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$9 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$9 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$9 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$9 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$10 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$10 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$12 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$8 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records