Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1025…fbfa sports 892 markets active 2d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,129 (+6%) realized +$2,130 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%504W / 387L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$482est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$186
14 days−$1,257
30 days−$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,742
crypto 1% −$40
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 39% -11.4%
≤30d 443 -9.3% -17.9% 52% 49% -11.6%
≤90d 758 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 53% -5.2%
all 891 -2.8% -12.1% 57% 52% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 52% -5.3%
10% -20.5% 46% -14.4%
15% -28.2% 37% -22.6%
20% -35.2% 28% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$32 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$2,130
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses504 / 387
Est. fees paid−$482
Open positions1
Markets (closed)891 / 892
History coverage111d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 891 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 74¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $98 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $86 +$142 +165%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $423 +$26 +6%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $315 +$283 +90%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $81 +$100 +124%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $339 −$58 -17%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 +$46 +152%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $30 +$12 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $121 +$35 +29%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $47 +$44 +94%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $55 −$1 -2%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $56 −$26 -47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $47 +$1 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $247 +$26 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $91 +$13 +15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$23 -38%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $91 −$48 -52%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $61 +$72 +119%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $91 −$1 -1%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$16 -53%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$16 -30%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$13 +67%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$43 +140%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$2 +8%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $42 −$16 -37%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$7 +24%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $56 −$21 -37%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$8 +26%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $82 +$32 +38%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$6 +18%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$5 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $69 −$8 -12%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $136 +$159 +117%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $106 −$42 -39%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $74 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $94 −$4 -5%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 28¢ $82 47h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $50 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 32¢ $12 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 60¢ $17 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 58¢ $12 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 57¢ $45 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 55¢ $51 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 46¢ $51 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 56¢ $51 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 47¢ $51 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 58¢ $34 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 71¢ $10 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 70¢ $28 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 55¢ $51 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 53¢ $51 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 50¢ $23 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 54¢ $51 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $21 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $32 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $10 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 40¢ $22 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 33¢ $48 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 35¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.22 · official $113.22 (match) · 2702 history records