Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1028…9833 politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$22
politics 40% −$24
sports 10% +$5
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 142 +3.0% -6.8% 7% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 4% -9.6%
10% -15.7% 4% -18.3%
15% -23.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -31.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage130d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $270 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $243 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $258 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $217 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $249 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $194 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $538 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,472 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $216 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $275 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $222 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $201 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $292 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $261 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $227 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $253 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $287 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $272 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $295 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $266 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $262 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 26h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 32h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $23 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $23 16d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 16d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 18d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 18d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 19d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 19d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 19d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 20d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 21d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $270 23d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $243 23d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $243 23d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $258 24d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $258 24d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $265 25d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $265 25d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $217 25d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $217 26d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $249 26d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $249 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 27d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $238 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $238 27d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 455 history records