Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:59:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
10 0x1028…058f crypto 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%133W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$106
14 days−$306
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 50% -15.2%
≤30d 88 +4.4% -5.6% 56% 56% -9.1%
≤90d 135 +4.9% -5.1% 56% 56% -7.5%
all 263 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 50% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 50% -10.7%
10% -22.0% 49% -19.2%
15% -29.6% 47% -27.0%
20% -36.5% 45% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$28 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses133 / 130
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 263
History coverage178d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions (128 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$24 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$33 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$22 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$52 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $55 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$34 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$43 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $143 −$138 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $44 +$50 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $48 +$37 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $54 +$43 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $46 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $54 +$45 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $47 +$45 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $48 +$36 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $49 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $47 +$46 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$44 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $55 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$27 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$48 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $47 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $55 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $49 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $49 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $47 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $48 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $43 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $44 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $48 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $46 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.90 · official $12.90 (match) · 487 history records