Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x102a…bec8 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$13
politics 17% −$3
sports 9% −$38
culture 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -3.2% -12.4% 12% 8% -9.7%
all 105 -3.1% -12.3% 11% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 8% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 8% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 6% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 93
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage94d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $300 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $358 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $347 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $157 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $164 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $166 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $166 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $451 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $169 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $265 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $319 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $299 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $162 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $300 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $168 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $302 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $304 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $473 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $169 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $172 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $316 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 17h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 21h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 27h
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $96 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 22d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 23d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $28 24d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $28 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 28d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $65 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $21 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $21 29d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $35 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.62 · official $180.62 (match) · 295 history records