Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x102f…18ee world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$4
other 20% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 5% +$2
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.1% -14.2% 20% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 13 -1.9% -11.3% 31% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 13 -1.9% -11.3% 31% 0% -10.2%
all 33 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -9.8%
10% -19.3% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage492d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $2 $0 -15%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $34 −$4 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Dec 10 $2 $0 -24%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $6 $0 +5%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 19 $7 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 15 $4 $0 +12%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $10 $0 -0%
Tulsa vs. North Texas Mar 03 $8 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $8 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $30 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $30 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $8 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $27 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $28 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $34 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $38 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $38 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $10 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $24 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $34 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $13 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records