Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x1032…c372 sports 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,479 (+7%) realized +$17,479 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%64W / 84L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,617per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$3,998est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21,731
7 days+$14,215
14 days+$27,748
30 days+$17,923
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$21,729
other 2% −$4,559
crypto 0% −$616
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +21.4% +9.9% 51% 51% +1.5%
≤30d 102 +2.9% -6.9% 43% 43% -1.1%
≤90d 148 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 43% -3.2%
all 148 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 43% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 43% -3.2%
10% -16.6% 43% -12.5%
15% -24.6% 43% -21.0%
20% -32.0% 41% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$2,099) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,069 vs −$1,379 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17,479
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses64 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$3,998
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage72d
Avg bet$1,617
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,995 +$1,713 +86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $942 +$857 +91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,548 +$4,389 +172%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,050 +$9,490 +463%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,060 +$5,993 +196%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,043 −$2,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5,048 +$2,297 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,146 −$3,100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5,045 +$2,090 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,395 +$2,689 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5,046 +$2,192 +43%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $252 −$246 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,024 +$3,735 +365%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,128 +$1,574 +140%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,162 −$2,122 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,341 −$2,305 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6,299 −$6,185 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,332 +$2,978 +89%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,765 −$2,697 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6,165 −$6,043 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4,985 −$4,896 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,500 −$1,478 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $779 −$765 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,498 +$2,270 +152%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $997 −$997 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,041 +$1,577 +152%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4,991 +$5,038 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,999 −$1,969 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,577 −$1,552 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $810 +$769 +95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,202 +$1,745 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $2,991 −$135 -4%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1,045 −$1,045 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,094 +$1,155 +106%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $836 +$1,239 +148%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1,470 +$1,364 +93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1,797 +$1,672 +93%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5,000 +$3,803 +76%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $2,756 −$1,269 -46%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3,841 −$3,761 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5,001 −$4,913 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,497 −$1,477 -99%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $865 −$848 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $1,500 +$2,864 +191%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $4,066 +$2,523 +62%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,006 −$996 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5,462 +$5,103 +93%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,454 +$3,023 +123%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,755 −$309 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $3,708 28m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $1,995 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1,800 25h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $942 33h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $6,937 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2,548 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $11,540 42h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 17¢ $2,050 43h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 100¢ $9,053 43h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 33¢ $3,060 44h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $2,043 44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $7,345 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $5,048 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $3,146 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $7,135 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $5,045 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $6,085 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $3,395 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $7,239 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $5,046 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 14¢ $252 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $4,758 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 21¢ $1,024 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $2,703 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $1,125 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $4 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $12 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 21¢ $157 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 21¢ $1,363 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 21¢ $105 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 427 history records