Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:28:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1033…9db9 weather 672 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$194 (-1%) realized −$178 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate91%578W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,020now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$10
14 days−$32
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 30% −$120
other 26% +$15
crypto 13% −$16
politics 9% −$32
sports 9% −$68
world 6% +$17
economics 2% −$3
finance 2% +$3
tech 2% −$8
culture 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -1.6% -10.9% 93% 14% -9.9%
≤30d 433 -3.9% -13.0% 91% 14% -10.7%
≤90d 638 -2.9% -12.1% 91% 12% -10.6%
all 638 -2.9% -12.1% 91% 12% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 12% -10.6%
10% -20.6% 2% -19.2%
15% -28.2% 1% -27.0%
20% -35.3% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,020
Realized−$178
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses578 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions34
Markets (closed)638 / 672
History coverage76d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? No 99¢ 99¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-0%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $123 $127 +$3 (+3%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? No 96¢ 97¢ $61 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 99¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 98¢ 94¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-4%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? No 98¢ 100¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? No 98¢ 100¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? No 98¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 21? No 93¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alexander Command be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? No 94¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $18 $12 −$5 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $46 +$2 +4%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 20 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 20 $14 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $11 $0 +2%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $8 $0 +5%
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) Jun 20 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 19 $4 $0 +13%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +6%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $8 $0 +6%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $14 $0 +1%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $175 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $84 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 18? Jun 18 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 18 $28 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $92 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $27 $0 +1%
Will Andrés Gómez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $21 +$1 +6%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 18 $36 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $57 +$1 +1%
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $8 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 37m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 98¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 98¢ $23 7h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $15 16h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY No 94¢ $14 18h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 88¢ $4 21h
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) BUY Scotland 98¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $7 23h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 98¢ $11 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $12 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $13 24h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $7 26h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 26h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $7 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $7 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 27h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,020.14 · official $1,020.02 (match) · 1873 history records