Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x1035…3421 other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%65W / 74L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days+$11
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$23
other 22% +$3
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
economics 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 36 +0.5% -9.0% 39% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 42 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 5% -9.3%
all 139 +1.2% -8.5% 47% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.2% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.2% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses65 / 74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)139 / 141
History coverage467d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 82¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $192 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $268 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $350 −$2 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $231 +$1 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $174 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $90 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $166 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $177 −$2 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $197 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $195 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $196 −$21 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $93 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $193 +$5 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $191 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $404 +$12 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $181 +$20 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $73 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $452 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $360 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 04 $14 +$3 +26%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $164 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $20 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $256 +$3 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $159 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $147 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $178 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $12 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $170 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $1,209 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $156 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $960 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $957 +$3 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $954 +$5 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 27 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 27 $2 $0 +8%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 27 $12 −$2 -18%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Jul 27 $7 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $190 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $190 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $122 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $130 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $64 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $64 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $127 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $70 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $197 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $144 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $139 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $34 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $190 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $191 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $23 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $151 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $174 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $30 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $33 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $90 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $75 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $166 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.00 (match) · 584 history records