Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1039…801a sports 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%23W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$3
other 19% −$3
politics 19% −$3
crypto 10% −$2
economics 7% +$2
culture 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 213 -1.0% -10.4% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses23 / 190
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 213
History coverage171d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 22 $39 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $76 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 19 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $77 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 13 $119 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 12 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 12 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $76 $0 +0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 09 $44 $0 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $34 $0 +1%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $171 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 8h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 14d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 15d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $39 22d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $39 22d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $33 35d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $34 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $40 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $39 89d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $29 89d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $29 89d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $38 89d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $38 90d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $28 90d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $28 90d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $32 90d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $32 90d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $29 90d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $29 91d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $33 91d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $33 91d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $29 91d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $29 91d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $40 91d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $41 92d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $37 92d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $37 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $31 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $31 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 768 history records