Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x103e…78b5 weather 145 markets active 5h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,068 (-12%) realized −$1,197 · open +$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%44W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$194
14 days−$564
30 days−$1,355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,231
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +1.2% -8.5% 23% 23% +11.8%
≤30d 139 -17.5% -25.3% 32% 31% -22.6%
≤90d 139 -17.5% -25.3% 32% 31% -22.6%
all 139 -17.5% -25.3% 32% 31% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 31% -22.6%
10% -32.5% 30% -30.0%
15% -39.0% 28% -36.8%
20% -45.0% 25% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$50 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$1,197
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses44 / 95
Open positions6
Markets (closed)139 / 145
History coverage22d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $50 $178 +$128 (+256%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $21 +$78 +376%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$9 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $5 +$15 +279%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 −$4 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -92%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$60 +570%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $31 +$90 +290%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$9 -46%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $21 −$14 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$63 +303%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$13 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $42 −$40 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $37 −$35 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$116 +370%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 +$180 +432%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 +$128 +309%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 +$8 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 10 $83 −$80 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $109 +$309 +284%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $57 +$52 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 08 $78 −$21 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $193 −$115 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $62 −$60 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL Yes 21¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY Yes 5¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $52 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY Yes 3¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.91 · official $239.91 (match) · 320 history records