trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 90¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 91¢ | 82¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-9%) |
| SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day | Up | 87¢ | 60¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-31%) |
| Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? | Yes | 63¢ | 74¢ | $5 | $6 | +$1 (+17%) |
| Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? | No | 56¢ | 61¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Nothing Ever Happens: June | Nothing | 90¢ | 92¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? | Yes | 74¢ | 72¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? | Yes | 79¢ | 60¢ | $3 | $2 | −$1 (-23%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$1 | -12% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$1 | +13% |
| Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? | Jun 09 | $10 | +$3 | +33% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P | Jun 07 | $3 | +$1 | +43% |
| Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P | Jun 07 | $5 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | Jun 07 | $40 | +$10 | +26% |
| Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Goog | Nov 06 | $2 | −$1 | -50% |
| Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi | Nov 01 | $10 | −$1 | -10% |
| Atlas global browser market share 1%+ on October 31? | Nov 01 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31? | Nov 01 | $10 | +$7 | +71% |
| North Korea missile launch by November 15? | Oct 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +15.5% | +4.5% | 71% | 71% | +8.8% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +15.5% | +4.5% | 71% | 71% | +8.8% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +15.5% | +4.5% | 71% | 71% | +8.8% |
| all | 12 | +2.1% | -7.6% | 58% | 50% | +8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.6% | 50% | +8.2% |
| 10% | -16.4% | 33% | -2.1% |
| 15% | -24.5% | 17% | -11.6% |
| 20% | -31.9% | 8% | -20.3% |