Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1044…d67a other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (290 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$876 · open −$876
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day290.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$2,886now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$114
other 30% −$743
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (290 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -23.2% -30.5% 23% 8% -7.8%
≤30d 13 -23.2% -30.5% 23% 8% -7.8%
≤90d 13 -23.2% -30.5% 23% 8% -7.8%
all 13 -23.2% -30.5% 23% 8% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover290.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.5% 8% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -37.1% 8% -16.6%
15% -43.2% 8% -24.7%
20% -48.8% 8% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$6 · ×4.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,886
Realized+$876
Unrealized−$876
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions33
Markets (closed)13 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day290.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Germany 94¢ 100¢ $1,138 $1,214 +$75 (+7%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 76¢ 100¢ $380 $500 +$119 (+31%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Ecuador 96¢ 100¢ $288 $300 +$12 (+4%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $165 $200 +$35 (+21%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 100¢ $190 $200 +$10 (+5%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? No 76¢ 100¢ $108 $141 +$34 (+31%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 88¢ 100¢ $88 $100 +$12 (+14%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $8 $95 +$86 (+1034%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Under 93¢ 100¢ $46 $50 +$3 (+7%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 81¢ 100¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+23%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Curaçao 60¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+65%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $36 $1 −$35 (-98%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $224 $0 −$224 (-100%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Côte dIvoire 44¢ 0¢ $133 $0 −$133 (-100%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 75¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Curaçao leading at halftime? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $206 +$1 +1%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $133 +$74 +55%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $125 +$5 +4%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $233 −$23 -10%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $186 −$3 -2%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $6 −$6 -92%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $9 −$7 -84%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $1 $0 -13%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $40 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $14 −$4 -32%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 25 $22 −$10 -43%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $58 11m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $58 11m
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY No 1¢ $1 12m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 95¢ $28 12m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 94¢ $19 13m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13m
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 14m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 14m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 95¢ $47 15m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 95¢ $47 15m
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 15m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 95¢ $47 15m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 95¢ $47 15m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 93¢ $47 16m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 93¢ $47 16m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 16m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 93¢ $47 16m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 92¢ $46 16m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 16m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 92¢ $46 16m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 16m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 16m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 17m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 18m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $49 19m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 20m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 88¢ $44 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,886.12 · official $2,886.12 (match) · 294 history records