Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1044…8ceb sports 1392 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,174 (-15%) realized −$1,027 · open −$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate61%681W / 442L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day62.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$940now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$57
14 days−$8
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$144
other 21% −$121
weather 18% −$429
world 11% +$154
politics 9% −$50
crypto 9% −$20
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% −$16
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +1.6% -8.1% 59% 28% -0.6%
≤30d 675 +0.7% -8.9% 55% 32% -18.1%
≤90d 1123 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 24% -18.1%
all 1123 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 24% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 24% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 19% -26.0%
15% -27.7% 16% -33.1%
20% -34.8% 12% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$940
Realized−$1,027
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses681 / 442
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions299
Markets (closed)1123 / 1392
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day62.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 299 History 1123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 99¢ $19 $157 +$137 (+710%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 99¢ $7 $25 +$18 (+252%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 86¢ 84¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+38%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 73¢ 80¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 70¢ 75¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 17¢ 18¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-31%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 88¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+18%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 50¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 72¢ 81¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $12 $10 −$3 (-23%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $4 $9 +$4 (+100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? No 84¢ 81¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 46¢ 97¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+109%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 83¢ 95¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +244%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $3 +$2 +44%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$14 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $23 +$8 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +180%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $6 +$10 +164%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5 +$40 +809%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 35m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 75¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 48m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 48m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 28¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 13¢ $2 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $939.76 · official $928.55 · 3500 history records