Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1045…08f5 other 37 markets active 7d ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-13%) realized −$58 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$84
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$91
sports 26% −$23
world 7% +$45
politics 4% +$11
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -21.8% -29.2% 50% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 6 -61.7% -65.3% 17% 17% -75.3%
≤90d 35 +9.7% -0.7% 37% 37% -22.1%
all 35 +9.7% -0.7% 37% 37% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 37% -22.1%
10% -10.2% 37% -29.6%
15% -18.9% 34% -36.4%
20% -26.8% 31% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage76d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 30 $5 −$1 -26%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 17 $5 +$7 +131%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $5 +$70 +1391%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 20 $5 +$4 +90%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $10 +$12 +124%
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $25 +$6 +26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 09 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $30 +$24 +79%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $81 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $10 27d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 63¢ $20 28d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 28d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 48d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 48d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 49d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 49d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 50d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 53d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 55d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 56d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 56d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 57d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 57d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 60d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 60d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 61d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 69d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 69d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 70d
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 70d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 70d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 71d
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 71d
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 73d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.24 · official $8.24 (match) · 86 history records