Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
10 0x1048…a535 other 183 markets active 5d ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$25 (+11%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%54W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$26
world 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -39.1% -44.9% 0% 0% -44.9%
≤30d 3 -79.7% -81.6% 0% 0% -83.2%
≤90d 8 -30.8% -37.4% 25% 25% -39.5%
all 183 +5.2% -4.8% 30% 30% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 30% +0.1%
10% -13.9% 29% -9.5%
15% -22.2% 28% -18.3%
20% -29.9% 26% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses54 / 129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage204d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -39%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1 +$1 +113%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1 +$2 +179%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $1 $0 +41%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 $0 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 $0 +45%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 $0 +45%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1 +$3 +271%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $1 +$1 +122%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -84%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $1 +$6 +614%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $2 +$18 +900%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $1 +$2 +165%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $1 $0 -7%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $2 +$3 +164%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $2 +$2 +119%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $1 +$1 +120%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-01-23? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-01-23? Jan 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 19d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 35d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 35d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 35d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 35d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 36d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 36d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 36d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 92d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 92d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 92d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 92d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 93d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 93d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 93d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 98d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 99d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 99d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 99d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 99d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 99d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 99d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 100d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 100d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 100d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 100d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 275 history records