Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x104f…04aa
sports · 126 markets active 0h ago
7.0score
+$296 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$292 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$234
Realized+$292
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses51 / 74
Est. fees paid−$330
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage180d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$51
14 days+$728
30 days+$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 34¢ 34¢ $231 $234 +$3 (+1%)
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 38¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) Melquizael Costa 48¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Elias Ymer 18¢ 0¢ $504 $0 −$504 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Tom Gentzsch 21¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Marc Polmans Marc Polmans 11¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 56¢ 0¢ $158 $0 −$158 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Dino Prizmic 65¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima Luca Van Assche 36¢ 0¢ $363 $0 −$363 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 7¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox 38¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong Coleman Wong 2¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Canadiens 42¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev Quentin Halys 9¢ 0¢ $194 $0 −$194 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres 34¢ 0¢ $273 $0 −$273 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 47¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Norbert Gombos Norbert Gombos 12¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Casper Ruud 27¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka Raul Brancaccio 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Dalibor Svrcina 45¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jakub Mensik 22¢ 0¢ $314 $0 −$314 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 65¢ 0¢ $194 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$105 +103%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $146 +$181 +124%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $106 −$81 -76%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $11 +$13 +121%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $109 +$95 +88%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $70 −$68 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $79 −$78 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $224 −$219 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $296 +$359 +121%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $27 +$31 +117%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $114 −$9 -8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $151 −$148 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $74 +$77 +105%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $91 −$89 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $100 +$112 +112%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $109 −$107 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $70 −$69 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $52 +$40 +76%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $63 −$62 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 10 $70 −$7 -9%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $30 −$29 -98%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $35 +$35 +98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $21 −$21 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $70 +$135 +194%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $83 −$82 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $70 +$126 +180%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $42 −$41 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $45 −$44 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $35 +$52 +149%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $188 −$185 -98%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $128 −$37 -29%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $70 +$156 +223%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $107 −$105 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $517 −$504 -98%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $509 −$500 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $360 +$667 +185%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $174 +$187 +107%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $140 −$138 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $154 +$303 +197%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $71 +$243 +344%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $175 −$170 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $322 −$314 -98%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 05 $134 −$132 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $185 +$358 +194%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $184 +$397 +216%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $70 +$114 +163%
Birmingham: Harry Wendelken vs Mark Lajal Jun 04 $140 −$138 -98%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Norbert Gombos Jun 04 $70 −$68 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $70 −$69 -98%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva Jun 04 $71 −$69 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$459
other 4% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $236 10m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $206 11m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 98¢ $327 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $146 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 5h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Katie Boulter 99¢ $23 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $106 7h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria SELL Nicolas Kicker 99¢ $204 7h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 52¢ $109 8h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 44¢ $11 8h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 27¢ $70 11h
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 38¢ $79 12h
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Benjamin Bonzi 27¢ $224 13h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 99¢ $655 14h
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Oriol Roca Batalla 99¢ $58 14h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Thijs Boogaard 14¢ $105 15h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $136 27h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $15 27h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 59¢ $151 27h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 40¢ $91 28h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $74 33h
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 45¢ $27 33h
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $296 36h
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 14¢ $114 36h
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ $213 36h
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 19¢ $100 37h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth BUY James Duckworth 43¢ $109 37h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $70 2d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $92 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +9.7% -0.8% 44% 44% -8.6%
≤30d 124 -6.0% -15.0% 41% 39% -7.8%
≤90d 124 -6.0% -15.0% 41% 39% -7.8%
all 125 -6.1% -15.0% 41% 38% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 38% -7.9%
10% -23.2% 38% -16.7%
15% -30.6% 36% -24.8%
20% -37.4% 34% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.33 · official $234.40 (match) · 193 history records