Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x1050…9393 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$423 (+25%) realized −$12 · open +$435
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$362
crypto 25% −$96
tech 17% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-82.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -80.3% -82.2% 0% 0% -66.5%
≤30d 3 -80.3% -82.2% 0% 0% -66.5%
≤90d 3 -80.3% -82.2% 0% 0% -66.5%
all 3 -80.3% -82.2% 0% 0% -66.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.2% 0% -66.5%
10% -83.9% 0% -69.7%
15% -85.5% 0% -72.6%
20% -86.9% 0% -75.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$95 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,633
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$435
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage13d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 32¢ 80¢ $280 $705 +$425 (+152%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 57¢ 49¢ $480 $415 −$65 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $238 $311 +$73 (+30%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? No 58¢ 58¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 24 $284 −$116 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,633.02 · official $1,633.02 (match) · 28 history records