Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1054…0b3c other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$18
politics 32% −$11
sports 9% +$32
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 145 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×10.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage130d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $224 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $423 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $157 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $182 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $160 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $349 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $201 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $362 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $147 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $201 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $393 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $381 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $395 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $174 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $181 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $166 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $181 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $218 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $386 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $164 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $180 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $213 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $217 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $161 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $213 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $218 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $33 7h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 26h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 46h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 18d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 19d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $22 19d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $22 19d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 20d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 20d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $34 20d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $34 21d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $157 21d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $157 23d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $182 23d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $182 23d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 25d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 25d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $186 25d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $186 26d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $182 27d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $182 27d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $201 27d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $201 28d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $165 28d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $165 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 435 history records