Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1054…0f98 politics 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$659 (+0%) realized +$659 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%20W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$1,867per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$24
14 days−$55
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$157
other 37% −$43
sports 12% +$820
world 3% −$10
culture 2% −$7
crypto 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 56 -3.6% -12.8% 5% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 110 -3.9% -13.1% 5% 3% -9.5%
all 159 -2.9% -12.2% 13% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 10% -9.3%
10% -20.6% 9% -18.0%
15% -28.3% 9% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,668) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$13 · ×9.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized+$659
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses20 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,867
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $182 $181 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,938 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2,522 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $2,185 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,442 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $7,268 −$8 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $6,207 −$6 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $4,966 −$7 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $863 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $185 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $741 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $2,564 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,749 −$3 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,482 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,400 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5,620 −$7 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,010 −$3 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $6,535 −$7 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $85 +$55 +65%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,060 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $4,024 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $6,616 −$7 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $5,344 −$6 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,486 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,881 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $4,766 −$6 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2,416 −$3 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? May 28 $1,056 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $607 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $608 3h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $782 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $182 5h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $784 5h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $344 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $344 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $642 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $642 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $361 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $362 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $794 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $795 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $830 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $831 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $900 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $902 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,168 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,170 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,099 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,100 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,000 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,001 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $882 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $884 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $862 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $863 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $739 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.42 · official $181.42 (match) · 609 history records