Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x105b…f580 world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 363d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 38L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 24% +$1
politics 12% $0
crypto 8% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +0.2% -9.3% 28% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 18 +0.2% -9.3% 28% 0% -9.4%
all 54 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

363d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage363d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $43 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $34 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $66 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $31 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $31 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $31 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Feb 01 $0 $0 -38%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on July 9? Jul 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 07 $13 $0 -2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 03 $2 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Jul 03 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $22 +$1 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 02 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $5 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $24 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $2 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $22 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $29 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $30 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $16 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $12 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $19 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 34h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $1 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $33 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $33 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $20 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records