Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
10 0x1060…d28b other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$479 (+12%) realized +$685 · open −$206
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%24W / 42L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$211
14 days+$239
30 days+$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$287
other 24% −$56
politics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +15.6% +4.6% 46% 29% -2.6%
≤30d 65 +16.4% +5.3% 37% 29% +1.6%
≤90d 66 +14.9% +3.9% 36% 29% +1.6%
all 66 +14.9% +3.9% 36% 29% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 29% +1.6%
10% -6.0% 23% -8.1%
15% -15.1% 20% -17.0%
20% -23.4% 17% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$14 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$685
Unrealized−$206
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses24 / 42
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions4
Markets (closed)66 / 71
History coverage31d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-90%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals No 51¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $27 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$122 +80%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$5 -53%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $307 −$73 -24%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $334 +$9 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +245%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $363 +$107 +30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $113 $0 +0%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$3 -45%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $213 +$2 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $24 −$19 -79%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$6 -21%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 +$12 +12%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$19 +1104%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $341 +$45 +13%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $341 +$16 +5%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $310 +$52 +17%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $129 +$178 +139%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $127 −$125 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$105 +1019%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$11 +105%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $31 −$8 -26%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $41 +$54 +132%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $17 −$8 -48%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $21 −$20 -97%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 93¢ $28 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $203 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 31¢ $42 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 4h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $2 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $274 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 4¢ $5 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 8¢ $10 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $234 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $342 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $334 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $470 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $363 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $113 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $113 3d
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 11¢ $4 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $215 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.73 · official $14.78 (match) · 135 history records