trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Jun 13 | $300 | +$99 | +33% |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | Jun 13 | $300 | +$16 | +5% |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Jun 07 | $51 | +$6 | +12% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 02 | $418 | +$51 | +12% |
| Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 | Jun 01 | $50 | +$4 | +8% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | Jun 01 | $180 | +$20 | +11% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 01 | $50 | +$6 | +11% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $100 | +$13 | +13% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Jun 01 | $1,051 | +$219 | +21% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | May 24 | $120 | +$20 | +17% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 22 | $298 | +$35 | +12% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 13 | $547 | +$166 | +30% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | May 03 | $59 | +$41 | +70% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | May 03 | $148 | +$52 | +35% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap | May 03 | $188 | +$12 | +6% |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | May 03 | $369 | +$29 | +8% |
| Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30? | Apr 21 | $73 | +$5 | +7% |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Apr 20 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Apr 20 | $148 | −$148 | -100% |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? | Apr 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Apr 14 | $200 | +$138 | +69% |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Apr 14 | $100 | +$9 | +9% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | Apr 14 | $200 | +$20 | +10% |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Apr 14 | $300 | +$77 | +26% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +16.6% | +5.5% | 100% | 67% | +7.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +14.0% | +3.2% | 100% | 82% | +5.6% |
| ≤90d | 24 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 88% | 58% | +4.8% |
| all | 24 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 88% | 58% | +4.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.8% | 58% | +4.8% |
| 10% | -13.9% | 25% | -5.3% |
| 15% | -22.3% | 8% | -14.4% |
| 20% | -29.9% | 8% | -22.8% |