Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
10 0x1063…18e1 crypto 2172 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$419 (+1%) realized +$437 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%1138W / 1086L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,421
sports 0% +$5
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 441 -50.3% -55.0% 28% 27% -57.6%
≤30d 1156 -6.9% -15.8% 51% 51% -18.5%
≤90d 2224 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 51% -15.4%
all 2224 -7.4% -16.2% 51% 51% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 51% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 51% -23.5%
15% -31.5% 50% -30.9%
20% -38.2% 50% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized+$437
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses1138 / 1086
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)2224 / 2172
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 2224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 58¢ 50¢ $175 $153 −$23 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 54¢ 50¢ $72 $67 −$5 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $31 $30 −$2 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 50¢ 88¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 57¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? No 79¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 85¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026? No 84¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? Yes 46¢ 69¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Yes 45¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on January 31 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $223 −$223 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $181 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $74 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $18 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.81 · official $307.60 (match) · 3500 history records