Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x1065…05b8
world · 89 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$4 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$150
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses28 / 57
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)85 / 89
History coverage292d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 4 History 85 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$8
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $150 $148 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 86¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 91¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $150 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $164 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $242 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $251 +$17 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $149 −$2 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $129 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $204 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $146 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $146 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $179 −$8 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $95 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $160 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $78 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $152 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $305 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $136 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $318 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $300 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $299 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $142 −$2 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $156 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $142 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $142 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $146 −$4 -2%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $143 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $301 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $144 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $128 +$1 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $309 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $158 +$1 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $298 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $284 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $428 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $586 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $164 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $143 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $158 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $301 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $157 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $134 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $230 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $144 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% +$8
other 24% −$2
politics 16% −$1
sports 14% +$3
economics 4% −$1
finance 1% −$4
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $150 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $134 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $144 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $115 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $164 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $122 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $118 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $23 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $124 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $149 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $129 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $129 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $131 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $146 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $103 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $146 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $69 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $78 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.1% -7.6% 25% 12% -8.5%
≤30d 32 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 77 +1.4% -8.2% 34% 3% -9.5%
all 85 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.58 · official $148.32 (match) · 394 history records