Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1065…6218 sports 959 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$139,408 (-21%) realized −$144,793 · open +$5,385
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%354W / 561L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$690per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Fees−$7,426est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$29,188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24,807
7 days−$33,336
14 days−$28,158
30 days−$50,769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$106,778
other 23% −$24,984
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -0.0% -9.5% 43% 42% -36.5%
≤30d 477 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 41% -22.8%
≤90d 915 -7.0% -15.9% 39% 38% -29.4%
all 915 -7.0% -15.9% 39% 38% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 38% -29.4%
10% -23.9% 37% -36.2%
15% ← realistic here -31.3% 37% -42.3%
20% -38.0% 34% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$640) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$615 vs −$633 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$29,188
Realized−$144,793
Unrealized+$5,385
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses354 / 561
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$7,426
Open positions19
Markets (closed)915 / 959
History coverage60d
Avg bet$690
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 915 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $6,043 $11,807 +$5,764 (+95%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 84¢ 84¢ $8,087 $8,039 −$48 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $2,286 $2,310 +$24 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 84¢ 84¢ $1,573 $1,573 +$0 (+0%)
Sweden leading at halftime? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $509 $1,375 +$866 (+170%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 37¢ 36¢ $1,062 $1,019 −$43 (-4%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 26¢ 26¢ $570 $559 −$11 (-2%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ 48¢ $532 $526 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $514 $519 +$5 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $455 $450 −$5 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $279 $276 −$3 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 61¢ 61¢ $267 $267 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Top Esports Challenger 58¢ 56¢ $205 $199 −$5 (-3%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Natus Vincere 36¢ 38¢ $82 $87 +$6 (+7%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage SaD Esports 45¢ 43¢ $84 $80 −$4 (-4%)
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Team Nemesis 40¢ 36¢ $70 $62 −$8 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 14¢ 8¢ $35 $20 −$15 (-43%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 51¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 81¢ 0¢ $1,133 $1 −$1,132 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 481 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,361 +$1,182 +87%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $190 +$145 +76%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $72 +$101 +140%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $160 +$143 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,902 +$2,550 +134%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $860 +$430 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $389 −$384 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $99 +$144 +146%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $917 +$5 +1%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $110 +$216 +197%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,908 +$1,266 +44%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $159 −$155 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $136 −$132 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $136 −$132 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $746 −$735 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5,898 +$1,948 +33%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $135 −$133 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4,451 +$1,148 +26%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $1,433 +$1,568 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,991 −$1,966 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $546 +$574 +105%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2,154 −$2,116 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,630 +$1,582 +97%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10,239 −$10,149 -99%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $533 +$286 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $448 −$441 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $945 −$618 -65%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $49 +$101 +206%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $338 +$857 +254%
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN League S Jun 13 $547 +$576 +105%
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs Four Angry Men - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $134 +$147 +109%
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs Four Angry Men - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $134 +$147 +109%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $129 −$127 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $110 −$108 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,244 +$517 +42%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,896 +$1,039 +36%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $379 −$372 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,328 −$1,318 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $339 +$162 +48%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $147 −$144 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2,092 −$2,058 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Kingzone vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - CN League Stag Jun 13 $148 −$146 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Kingzone vs Leviatán Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $308 −$303 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2,873 −$2,828 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9,576 −$9,507 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $910 −$903 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $673 −$662 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $1,580 24m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 84¢ $3,718 31m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 84¢ $4,408 37m
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $271 55m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $65 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $475 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $1,082 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $60 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $523 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 58¢ $207 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5,100 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $479 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $477 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $260 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $201 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $56 2h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $83 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $869 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $727 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 81¢ $1,139 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $727 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $389 12h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 14¢ $36 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $46 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $2 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $3 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $522 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $10 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,188.14 · official $29,188.18 (match) · 3117 history records