Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
10 0x1068…b886 sports 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$36 (+3%) realized +$40 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%29W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days−$6
14 days−$20
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$11
other 26% +$74
world 3% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +13.2% +2.4% 52% 52% -10.3%
≤30d 57 +15.0% +4.1% 51% 51% -6.2%
≤90d 57 +15.0% +4.1% 51% 51% -6.2%
all 57 +15.0% +4.1% 51% 51% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 51% -6.2%
10% -5.9% 49% -15.1%
15% -15.0% 49% -23.3%
20% -23.3% 42% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses29 / 28
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions12
Markets (closed)57 / 69
History coverage22d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 62¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 54¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 39¢ 40¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$17 +42%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 +$28 +550%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 +$9 +93%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $23 +$30 +129%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $19 +$17 +90%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$13 +65%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 +$14 +92%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$8 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 +$9 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 +$12 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$7 +238%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 +$5 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$15 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$7 +134%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$7 +146%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$27 +134%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $41 +$41 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$8 +83%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$7 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $19 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $19 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $45 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $16 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $51 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $30 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $20 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 23¢ $4 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $6 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $10 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 11h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 43¢ $23 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $29 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $19 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $19 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $28 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.22 · official $305.22 (match) · 100 history records