Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:02:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1071…503b sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$267 (-8%) realized −$267 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$211
14 days−$274
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$164
sports 34% −$290
other 31% +$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -19.9% -27.5% 42% 33% -25.8%
≤30d 82 -15.6% -23.7% 44% 33% -16.8%
≤90d 82 -15.6% -23.7% 44% 33% -16.8%
all 82 -15.6% -23.7% 44% 33% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 33% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 27% -24.8%
15% -37.6% 24% -32.1%
20% -43.8% 15% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage8d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$5 -50%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 22 $9 −$4 -42%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $30 +$12 +40%
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $39 +$15 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 −$13 -55%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $7 +$1 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $27 −$12 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +65%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 +$8 +27%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -91%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 $0 -10%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $6 −$2 -35%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $29 −$4 -15%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $9 +$2 +20%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $6 +$3 +41%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $23 −$5 -23%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $6 +$3 +56%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $9 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -19%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$6 -14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$14 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +36%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $16 −$9 -59%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$10 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals SELL Yes $5 37m
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists SELL Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 32¢ $9 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 71¢ $30 2h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Luca Castelnuovo 32¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $53 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 81¢ $8 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 74¢ $7 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $16 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $25 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records