Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1072…b115 crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$96 (+1%) realized +$102 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%45W / 81L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$80
14 days+$73
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$34
sports 30% +$35
other 5% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -10.6% -19.1% 23% 7% -8.6%
≤30d 123 -14.3% -22.5% 34% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 126 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 5% -9.1%
all 126 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 5% -9.1%
10% -29.6% 5% -17.8%
15% -36.4% 4% -25.8%
20% -42.7% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses45 / 81
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage34d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 98¢ 92¢ $98 $92 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $195 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $183 −$175 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$195 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $32 +$166 +523%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $12 +$3 +26%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $144 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$96 +2400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$2 -94%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $89 +$1 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $204 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $187 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$97 +3021%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $63 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $121 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $12 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $34 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $36 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.50 · official $95.50 · 513 history records