Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1073…4811 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-8%) realized −$117 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$129
14 days−$121
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$140
politics 31% +$19
other 27% −$9
sports 5% −$6
tech 2% +$12
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +10.5% +0.0% 48% 43% -23.4%
≤30d 28 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 39% -20.3%
≤90d 28 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 39% -20.3%
all 28 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 39% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 39% -20.3%
10% -14.2% 29% -27.9%
15% -22.5% 21% -34.9%
20% -30.1% 14% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)28 / 46
History coverage18d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$20 +388%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $201 −$93 -46%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 12 $101 +$7 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $200 −$44 -22%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 12 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $71 +$9 +13%
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 May 31 $100 +$6 +6%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 100¢ $15 24h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 72¢ $10 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $10 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 25h
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $25 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No $0 2d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $12 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $108 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $12 2d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $30 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $108 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $156 2d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 92¢ $40 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.63 · official $301.64 (match) · 101 history records