Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x1073…9b1f sports 64 markets active 2d ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,642 (-31%) realized −$2,672 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate72%44W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$259
14 days+$484
30 days+$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$427
world 35% −$2,993
other 13% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +35.8% +22.8% 86% 86% +9.1%
≤30d 33 +36.3% +23.3% 88% 88% +6.8%
≤90d 61 +10.8% +0.2% 72% 72% -44.2%
all 61 +10.8% +0.2% 72% 72% -44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 72% -44.2%
10% -9.4% 62% -49.5%
15% -18.1% 48% -54.4%
20% -26.1% 25% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$234 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,611
Realized−$2,672
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses44 / 17
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage79d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool? No 93¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,054 +$54 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 77¢ 74¢ $355 $339 −$16 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 73¢ 70¢ $226 $219 −$7 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $66 +$25 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $66 +$39 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $66 +$31 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $66 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $66 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$15 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $50 +$13 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $139 +$20 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $13 +$35 +276%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $25 +$14 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $50 +$16 +32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$39 +76%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $55 +$19 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $55 +$22 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $40 +$19 +48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 +$26 +101%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $106 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 +$12 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $50 +$18 +36%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $51 +$30 +60%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $53 +$42 +79%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Team Falcons win CS Asia Championships 2026? May 24 $156 −$155 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ukraine be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $50 +$7 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $149 +$62 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $104 +$45 +44%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 13 $40 +$12 +31%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $130 −$8 -6%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $66 +$43 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 11 $29 +$13 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $40 +$10 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $101 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $63 −$63 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 73¢ $228 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $357 44h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 72¢ $66 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $66 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $66 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 78¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $66 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $66 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 55¢ $66 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 87¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 60¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 26¢ $13 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $50 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $88 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $50 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 75¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $30 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 67¢ $40 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 74¢ $55 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $55 9d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 49¢ $25 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Spirit 90¢ $106 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BetBoom Team 66¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,610.87 · official $1,611.41 (match) · 115 history records