Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1075…4be0 other 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 262L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$40
sports 24% −$18
culture 8% −$8
politics 8% −$6
economics 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$6
world 4% −$8
tech 1% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 269 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 269
History coverage142d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $142 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $389 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $393 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $353 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $269 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $466 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $684 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $400 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $570 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $307 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $535 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $129 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $204 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $118 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $198 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $150 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $636 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $588 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $185 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $167 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $363 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 4h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 5h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 8h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 10h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 14h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 16h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 23h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 24h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 29h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 38h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 40h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 44h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 47h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1536 history records