Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x1075…19c1
crypto · 917 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,725 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,313 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$1,313
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses440 / 694
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1134 / 917
History coverage22d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day142.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 14 History 1134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$531
14 days−$1,075
30 days−$1,313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Roman Anthony hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will Trea Turner hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will Mickey Moniak hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will Wilyer Abreu hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will Jackson Merrill hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will CJ Abrams hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will Max Muncy hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Michael Harris II hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will Ronald Acuña Jr. hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Will Panama record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Francisco Lindor hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by more than 50%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Kumar Kushagra win the 2026 IPL Emerging Player of the Season award? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Smaran Ravichandran win the 2026 IPL Emerging Player of the Season award? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +440%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +576%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +727%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +363%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +377%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +2325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +743%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +516%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$2 +2325%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +839%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +1840%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +562%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +447%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +547%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -595%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +782%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% −$618
crypto 17% −$48
politics 16% −$195
world 12% −$112
finance 7% −$126
weather 6% −$117
tech 6% −$97
sports 1% −$20
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 10m
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 11m
Will Florian Wirtz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $2 35m
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Florian Wirtz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 1¢ $1 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 1h
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 24¢ $19 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 24¢ $19 1h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $30 2h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 398 +162.8% +137.8% 43% 39% -20.3%
≤30d 1134 +51.5% +37.1% 39% 18% -19.6%
≤90d 1134 +51.5% +37.1% 39% 18% -19.6%
all 1134 +51.5% +37.1% 39% 18% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover142.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.1% 18% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here +24.0% 16% -27.3%
15% +12.0% 14% -34.4%
20% +1.0% 13% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.00 · official $7.82 (match) · 3500 history records