Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x107a…9459 world 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$5
other 21% +$1
politics 18% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 -1.8% -11.2% 28% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 18 -1.8% -11.2% 28% 0% -9.9%
all 72 -0.9% -10.3% 32% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage297d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $76 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $78 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 −$3 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 18 $6 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $4 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Oct 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 06 $33 $0 -1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $2 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $24 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $9 $0 +3%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 24 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $41 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $38 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $38 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $12 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $27 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $2 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $40 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $36 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $39 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $39 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $37 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $0 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.75 · official $36.75 (match) · 279 history records