Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x107e…9983 other 35 markets active 6d ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-8%) realized −$19 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$11
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$23
world 2% +$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -15.9%
≤30d 33 -6.5% -15.4% 33% 15% -15.5%
≤90d 34 -6.3% -15.3% 35% 15% -15.4%
all 34 -6.3% -15.3% 35% 15% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 15% -15.4%
10% -23.4% 9% -23.5%
15% -30.8% 9% -30.9%
20% -37.6% 9% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage39d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 95¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $33 −$3 -10%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 $0 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $4 $0 +10%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 +$3 +149%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $7 $0 +2%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $2 −$2 -92%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $7 +$1 +9%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $2 +$3 +157%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3 $0 -15%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will América FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 −$4 -87%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$1 -39%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bay FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 +$1 +20%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 $0 +5%
Will Cádiz CF vs. CD Leganés end in a draw? May 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4 $0 -6%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 73¢ $10 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 8d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 8d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 12d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 12d
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.13 · official $3.13 (match) · 104 history records