Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x107f…bb8c crypto 704 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,367 (+5%) realized +$6,720 · open −$4,353
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%618W / 71L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day140.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27,574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$132
world 21% +$111
other 15% −$4,457
culture 2% −$15
tech 1% +$7
economics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 689 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 689 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.2%
all 689 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$27,574
Realized+$6,720
Unrealized−$4,353
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses618 / 71
Open positions19
Markets (closed)689 / 704
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day140.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 689 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $7,500 $11,978 +$4,478 (+60%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,166 $3,186 +$20 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $7,500 $3,022 −$4,478 (-60%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,974 $1,998 +$24 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,614 $1,639 +$25 (+2%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,388 $1,395 +$7 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $792 $798 +$6 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $671 $680 +$9 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $495 $500 +$5 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $480 $484 +$5 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $400 $415 +$15 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 94¢ 96¢ $378 $384 +$6 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 85¢ 86¢ $340 $346 +$6 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $340 $332 −$8 (-2%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+5%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 22 $351 −$16 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $57 −$15 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $54 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $39 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $126 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $98 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $131 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $144 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $74 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $92 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $123 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $72 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $163 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $307 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $299 2h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 14h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 14h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 15h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 16h
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 90¢ $116 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 92¢ $28 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 92¢ $68 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 95¢ $3 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 94¢ $36 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 95¢ $7 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 95¢ $6 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 95¢ $62 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 96¢ $10 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 96¢ $48 22h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 98¢ $49 24h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 98¢ $23 24h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 98¢ $26 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $192 24h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 98¢ $30 25h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 98¢ $0 25h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 98¢ $68 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,573.61 · official $27,573.61 (match) · 3500 history records