Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1081…7d90 crypto 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,582 (-14%) realized −$2,660 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%63W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days+$1,748
14 days+$1,748
30 days+$1,748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1,744
crypto 34% −$1,712
sports 23% −$2,967
world 2% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +13.3% +2.5% 47% 40% +11.0%
≤30d 30 +13.3% +2.5% 47% 40% +11.0%
≤90d 128 -1.8% -11.1% 49% 44% -24.5%
all 128 -1.8% -11.1% 49% 44% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 44% -24.5%
10% -19.6% 36% -31.8%
15% -27.4% 28% -38.4%
20% -34.5% 23% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$108 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1,173
Realized−$2,660
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses63 / 65
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions7
Markets (closed)128 / 135
History coverage53d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 72¢ 70¢ $510 $499 −$11 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 68¢ 82¢ $410 $498 +$88 (+22%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $62 $50 −$13 (-20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $420 −$204 -49%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $106 −$51 -48%
Austria to win the second half? Jun 17 $30 −$10 -33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $227 +$120 +53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $257 −$183 -71%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $415 +$144 +35%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$26 +25%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,922 +$1,805 +37%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $201 −$76 -38%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $113 −$59 -53%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $60 +$389 +650%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $1,009 −$750 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 11 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 11 $496 +$276 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 11 $380 −$373 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 11 $132 −$128 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 11 $16 +$55 +350%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 11 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 11 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 11 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 11 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 11 $123 +$33 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 11 $238 −$61 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 11 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 9¢ $112 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 84¢ $100 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $99 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $235 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $504 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $74 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $5 7h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 43¢ $50 16h
Austria to win the second half? SELL Yes 45¢ $20 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 16h
Austria to win the second half? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $212 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 12¢ $28 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 54¢ $8 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $131 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 76¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,172.60 · official $1,172.60 (match) · 405 history records