Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1081…98fb crypto 85 markets active 11d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%30W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day94.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$100
other 2% +$4
sports 1% +$6
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 85 -12.8% -21.1% 35% 33% -16.0%
≤90d 85 -12.8% -21.1% 35% 33% -16.0%
all 85 -12.8% -21.1% 35% 33% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 33% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 29% -24.0%
15% -35.6% 27% -31.4%
20% -41.9% 26% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses30 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day94.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$16 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$7 +676%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$10 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$21 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $18 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 273 history records