Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1083…fc47 world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 48L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$21
other 13% $0
sports 13% −$12
politics 12% −$1
economics 4% $0
finance 1% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 31 +64.4% +48.8% 45% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 76 +24.6% +12.7% 38% 7% -8.8%
all 77 +22.9% +11.2% 38% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 6% -9.2%
10% +0.6% 4% -17.9%
15% -9.1% 1% -25.8%
20% -18.0% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage491d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $116 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $105 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $82 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $64 −$2 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $57 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $82 +$9 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $53 +$2 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $54 +$2 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $53 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $48 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $58 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $26 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 +$4 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $19 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $67 +$4 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $20 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $54 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $163 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $129 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $52 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 $0 -14%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $35 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $36 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $57 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $47 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $28 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $9 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $8 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $25 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $19 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $49 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $13 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $15 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $46 28h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $53 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $16 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $47 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $64 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $49 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.00 (match) · 383 history records