Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x108a…2e23 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$122 (-23%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.1% -22.3% 50% 50% -15.5%
≤30d 4 -57.0% -61.1% 25% 25% -28.0%
≤90d 14 -55.7% -59.9% 29% 29% -53.5%
all 48 -8.8% -17.5% 40% 40% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 40% -32.2%
10% -25.4% 40% -38.7%
15% -32.6% 35% -44.6%
20% -39.2% 29% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage104d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 19 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$8 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 12 $1 +$5 +519%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$33 +329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 11 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$12 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$27 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$22 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records