Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x108d…68db other 436 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate43%176W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$19
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% +$8
world 23% −$10
sports 23% −$23
economics 12% $0
politics 9% +$1
tech 4% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -17.3% -25.2% 43% 18% -28.5%
≤30d 116 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 13% -11.4%
≤90d 407 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 18% -11.9%
all 407 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 18% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 18% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 10% -20.3%
15% -28.6% 7% -28.0%
20% -35.6% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses176 / 231
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions29
Markets (closed)407 / 436
History coverage88d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+9%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 79¢ 79¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 28¢ 74¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+163%)
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+43%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No 83¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 80¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 47¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +47%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $2 −$1 -62%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$1 -35%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 +40%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $2 −$1 -52%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -14%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$2 -74%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$1 -34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$1 -30%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1 $0 +24%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 06 $28 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 04 $3 $0 -1%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $19 −$4 -20%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 $0 -8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 $0 -6%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $1 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 35m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $1 55m
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $1 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 23¢ $1 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $1 3h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $2 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 7h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 16h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.48 · official $82.36 · 2556 history records