Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1096…705d weather 583 markets active 7h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-7%) realized −$128 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%138W / 444L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$3
14 days−$76
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 61% −$59
sports 31% −$63
other 7% +$11
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +6.6% -3.6% 54% 54% -8.2%
≤30d 79 -5.2% -14.2% 52% 52% -20.3%
≤90d 580 -10.5% -19.0% 23% 21% -17.9%
all 582 -8.7% -17.4% 24% 21% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 21% -17.1%
10% -25.3% 19% -25.0%
15% -32.5% 16% -32.2%
20% -39.1% 14% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses138 / 444
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)582 / 583
History coverage167d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 582 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $40 $58 +$18 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $11 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$3 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$3 +67%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$3 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$5 +70%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$4 +44%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$18 +902%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$3 +70%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$4 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$3 +46%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$5 +114%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $7 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $4 +$4 +101%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 +$4 +101%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$6 +129%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$4 +90%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $8 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $16 6h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 56¢ $11 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $3 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $3 45h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $4 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 2 Winner BUY OLDBOYS- 45¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 76¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 66¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 1 Winner BUY Arch 59¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY Ursa 60¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 59¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Infinite 51¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 58¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 69¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 72¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 39¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 51¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 56¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 65¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 58¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 82¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.75 · official $57.75 (match) · 1701 history records