Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
10 0x1097…8e71 politics 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$430per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$11
other 17% −$2
tech 7% −$1
economics 7% −$1
world 3% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$862) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,325
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage85d
Avg bet$430
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,298 $1,298 −$1 (-0%)
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 22 $1,321 −$1 -0%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Jun 22 $1,192 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Eun-hye win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election May 09 $77 $0 -0%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? May 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r May 04 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $806 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on May 03 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 May 03 $905 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $862 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $825 −$2 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Apr 07 $124 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,268 38m
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $14 47m
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $1,320 56m
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $1,307 1h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL No 100¢ $843 1h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL No 100¢ $345 2h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY No 100¢ $1,192 2h
Will Kim Eun-hye win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election SELL No 100¢ $77 44d
Will Kim Eun-hye win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election BUY No 100¢ $62 44d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $28 44d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $15 44d
Will Kim Eun-hye win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election BUY No 100¢ $15 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $15 44d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $13 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 44d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 48d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 48d
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 48d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 48d
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 48d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 49d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $874 49d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 49d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $853 49d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,325.06 · official $1,325.06 (match) · 92 history records